Monday, August 01, 2005

New Study Reveals Studies Are Useless

Several new studies have proven one very important thing: studies are useless. They either tell us the obvious, or try to measure things they can't even define. The sole exception is this study.

Some other cases in point:

Making the news is a study that suggests that global warming is making hurricanes stronger. The point is being used by environmentalist watermelons (green on the outside, red on the inside) for obvious political purposes. But what did it really prove?

The problem with these studies has always been how much you trust the computer modeling. How do you input everything that is relevant in a global weather pattern? My local weather forecasters can't tell me with any degree of certainty if or where the afternoon thurderstorm I have been caught in every single day this summer is going to strike. The article notes:

Global warming vs. natural cycle

Other researchers have noted that this is more likely a natural period of intense activity for Atlantic hurricanes.
Gee, might that be like the warming and ice age trends we think happened thousands of years before Henry Ford built his first car? Obviously the Earth has cooled and heated up without our input before. The sun is pretty active right now as well, and to top it off, we have less than 100 years of reliable global weather data. But screw that, let's draw conclusions.

For example, William Gray, a specialist in tropical meteorology at Colorado State University who pioneered seasonal hurricane forecasts, notes that the region goes through swings in activity that can span decades. He and his colleagues have noted that the US and its southern neighbors have faced above-average hurricane seasons for the past decade and is likely to do so for some time to come.

Emanuel acknowledges that such cycles are important. Depending on the region under scrutiny, the impact of natural cycles such as El NiƱo, or the multidecade cycles Dr. Gray observes, can swamp any global-warming signal the storms may carry. But viewed worldwide, the signal starts to appear.
In other words, when the data doesn't fit, expand the sample to different parts of the world, then combine the data and claim interconnectedness. But here is where the real game playing took placed I think. Read this and tell me (1) the measurement of these variables are trustworthy and (2) they couldn't just be made up.

His latest finding, he says, grew out of attempts to answer a broader question: Do hurricanes help drive large-scale ocean currents? These currents carry tropical waters toward the poles, bringing warmth to middle and high latitudes.

Measuring a typhoon's punchInitial calculations suggested that hurricane activity could account for up to half or more of the driving force behind these currents. If so, a significant long-term rise in tropical cyclones could push warmer water toward higher latitudes. This could lead to warmer average temperatures at middle and high latitudes than climate models currently project.

To answer the question, however, Emanuel needed to gauge a hurricane's or typhoon's punch. So he built a measure based on sustained wind speeds over the life of each storm and on each storm's duration. Combined, they reflect a storm's total power output. Since the mid-70s, storm power fluctuated with well-known natural cycles. But through this natural "noise," global warming's signal emerged as an increase in strength that tracked rising temperatures in the tropical oceans' surface waters.

Well, certainly such ground breaking research is universally accepted? "The work certainly will not be the last word on the subject. Some researchers are already raising questions about Emanuel's approach." Oh well.


Adolescent girls who have been shoved, hit, forced into any sexual activity or otherwise physically or sexually abused by a date are more likely than their non-abused peers to have been tested for a sexually transmitted disease and to report being diagnosed with an STD.

No kidding? Who would have thought that girls who date guys who rape them or hit them might also have STDs? The study went on to claim that girls who put out are more likely to get pregnant, and that pregnant girls are more likely to have abortions than virgins.

Then we have this headline: Study: Women Should Keep Their Ovaries. However, the women doing the study suggested that many men should get rid of their testicles. They just lead them into trouble.


At 10:05 AM, Blogger spd rdr said...

I am inspired by your post to commission a new study regarding studies: Do Studies Of Studies Raise New Studies to Study?

I am studying the idea and will release my prelimiary findings shortly.

At 10:08 AM, Blogger spd rdr said...

Do Studies Of Studies Raise New Studies to Study?: Preliminary Findings

After exhaustive research I am able to safelt conclude that studies of studies do indeed raise new studies to study; my own such study being the chief indicator of this trend.

Thank you.

At 10:19 AM, Blogger KJ said...

Sounds like someone needs a government grant.

At 11:37 AM, Blogger spd rdr said...

I'll study that.

At 1:19 PM, Anonymous Kenji said...

Studies hosted by the government don't reveal anything that we didn't already know or care about. I don't care how people can tickle themselves. I already knew that "Global Warming" is a solar cycle (actually go to google and type in solar cycle). I think that these studies should be stopped. Why not spend the extra googol billions that we have on research, like they keep saying that they will do. Like the search for the treatment of cancer, they will only go far enough to find a temporary fix, so that the repeated doses will need people to pay for each dose, gaining the people more money. So, people who say that money is an issue should look at what people pay to fund these ridiculous studies. Cancer will never be gone, the common cold will never be destroyed and AIDs will always kill people. Believe the people who say "Donate for the cause" and you are just being fooled out of your money.


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